← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 45% | 42% | 2.18 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 28% | 29% | 3.49 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1927.00 | 404.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1669.95 | 1743.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.90 | 18.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.82 | 25.67 |
| state index | 0.23 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |