← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 45% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 27% | 29% | 3.65 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Sidney Sam · Darmstadt |
| 18' | 🟨 | André Ramalho · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Mario Vrančić · Darmstadt |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mario Vrančić · Darmstadt |
| 59' | 🟥 | Mario Vrančić · Darmstadt |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Darmstadt |
| 89' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 89' | 🟥 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peter Niemeyer · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Platte · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1561.00 | 753.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1507.29 | 1680.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.64 | -2.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.79 | 25.94 |
| state index | -0.64 | 0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |