← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 86% | 87% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 9.71 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 4% | 5% | 27.45 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 253.00 | 375.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.56 |
| elo | 2033.37 | 1650.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.55 | -52.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.45 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 56.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.42 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 25.83 |
| state index | 2.16 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.56 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |