← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 65% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.64 | value: +6% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 14% | 15% | 7.14 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 9.00 | 1378.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1742.07 | 1643.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.41 | 26.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 47.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.37 | 28.10 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |