← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 46% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +3% |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 26% | 28% | 3.74 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| coach days |
| 93.00 |
| 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1619.79 | 1626.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.24 | 22.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.22 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |