← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 41% | 43% | 2.39 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 30% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 24' | ⚽ | Jhon Córdoba · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 746.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.00 |
| 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1563.25 | 1534.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.59 | -29.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |