← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 54% | 58% | 1.81 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.71 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 19% | 19% | 5.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Sebastian Rudy · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rudy · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 38' | ⚽ | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 58' | 🟨 | Benjamin Hübner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 60' | ⚽ (og) | Niklas Süle · Ingolstadt |
| 62' | ⚽ | Ádám Szalai · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 65' | 🟨 | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 77' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ádám Szalai · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 84' | 🟨 | Sonny Kittel · Ingolstadt |
| 88' | ⚽ | Benjamin Hübner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 397.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1735.87 | 1582.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.40 | 15.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.86 | -1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.78 | 27.40 |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |