← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochen Drees, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 73% | 54% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 35% | 5.49 | value: +91% ⚠ |
| 1. FC Köln win | 9% | 11% | 10.56 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Javi Martínez · FC Bayern München |
| 34' | 🟨 | Arturo Vidal · FC Bayern München |
| 48' | ⚽ | Juan Bernat · FC Bayern München |
| 79' | 🟨 | Juan Bernat · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ | Franck Ribéry · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1372.00 | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1707.59 | 2026.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.97 | -6.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| league points | 33.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 67.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.54 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 2.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 27.27 |
| state index | 0.40 | 1.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |