← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 70% | 67% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.32 | value: +11% |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 12% | 13% | 8.32 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 612.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1879.39 | 1751.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.22 | -23.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 40.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 25.00 |
| state index | 1.60 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |