← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 47% | 53% | 2.09 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 26% | 24% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Alessandro Schöpf · FC Schalke 04 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Niklas Süle · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 69' | 🟨 | Benjamin Hübner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 79' | ⚽ | Sebastian Rudy · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 270.00 | 391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1733.81 | 1734.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.57 | 15.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| league points | 26.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.24 | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |