← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 37% | 33% | 2.63 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 32% | 32% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Anthony Jung · Ingolstadt |
| 60' | ⚽ | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 63' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ | André Hahn · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 106.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1593.98 | 1732.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.73 | 19.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.13 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 26.08 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.52 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |