← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 59% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.99 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 17% | 19% | 5.87 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 20 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 970.00 | 739.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1648.51 | 1541.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.84 | -20.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| league points | 30.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.02 | — |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |