← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 50% | 44% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.35 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 21% | 29% | 4.71 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | John Brooks · Hertha |
| 40' | 🟨 | Genki Haraguchi · Hertha |
| 52' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mijat Gaćinović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 75' | 🟨 | Michael Hector · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 78' | 🟥 | Haris Seferović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 83' | ⚽ | Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 755.00 | 361.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1571.52 | 1549.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.73 | -27.39 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 34.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |