← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochen Drees, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 34% | 38% | 2.84 | value: +8% |
| Darmstadt win | 34% | 33% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Marcel Heller · Darmstadt |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Paul Verhaegh · FC Augsburg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Raúl Bobadilla · FC Augsburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcel Heller · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 1547.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1411.05 | 1512.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.84 | -19.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.81 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |