← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 84% | 83% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 8.63 | value: +15% |
| Hamburger SV win | 4% | 4% | 22.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 12 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 239.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 2023.94 | 1616.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.75 | 21.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| league points | 50.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 58.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.15 | -2.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.08 | 26.80 |
| state index | 1.59 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.61 | -1.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |