← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 69% | 66% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 5.02 | value: +3% |
| Darmstadt win | 12% | 14% | 8.22 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Kerem Demirbay · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 64' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ermin Bičakčić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sidney Sam · Darmstadt |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sebastian Rudy · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt |
| 86' | 🟨 | Peter Niemeyer · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hamit Altintop · Darmstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 383.00 | 1540.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1604.14 | 1416.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.62 | -7.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 34.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 34.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | -2.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |