← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 69% | 69% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.60 | fair |
| Hertha win | 10% | 12% | 9.60 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mats Hummels · FC Bayern München |
| 66' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 68' | 🟨 | Xabi Alonso · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rune Jarstein · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peter Pekarík · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 748.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1564.83 | 1905.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.83 | 4.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 33.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 69.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 2.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 2.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.79 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 1.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |