← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 47% | 44% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.28 | value: +6% |
| Ingolstadt win | 23% | 24% | 4.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 26' | ⚽ | Romain Brégerie · Ingolstadt |
| 34' | 🟥 | David Abraham · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ante Rebić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 68' | 🟨 | Michael Hector · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 78' | 🟨 | Timothy Chandler · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 81' | 🟥 | Mathew Leckie · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 11 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 354.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1571.77 | 1459.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.73 | -11.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 35.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 59.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -2.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.33 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |