← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 43% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 28% | 30% | 3.47 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Karim Bellarabi · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 40' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 60' | ⚽ | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Paul Verhaegh · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Wendell · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 261.00 | 962.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1525.63 | 1635.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.02 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |