← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 38% | 38% | 2.61 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 34% | 29% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.49 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 1351.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1485.15 | 1599.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.59 | -1.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |