← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Cortus, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.58 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 21% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 956.00 | 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1748.00 | 1708.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.32 | 10.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| league points | 24.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 26.61 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |