← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 71% | 77% | 1.39 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 21% | 12% | 4.75 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 9% | 11% | 11.15 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 73' | 🟨 | Romain Brégerie · Ingolstadt |
| 73' | 🟨 | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 76' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arturo Vidal · FC Bayern München |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arjen Robben · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 91.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1462.78 | 1902.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.97 | 3.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 70.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 2.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.90 | 2.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.79 |
| state index | -0.02 | 1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | 1.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |