← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71% | 75% | 1.38 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.32 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 11% | 9% | 9.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Terrence Boyd · Darmstadt |
| 44' | ⚽ | Raphaël Guerreiro · Borussia Dortmund |
| 67' | ⚽ | Antonio Čolak · Darmstadt |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
| 75' | 🟨 | Michael Esser · Darmstadt |
| 77' | 🟨 | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 79' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 12 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1533.00 | 591.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1399.97 | 1754.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.20 | -2.51 |
| eye test v1 | -1.66 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| league points | 9.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 31.80 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.47 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.66 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.47 |
| state index | -1.57 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.79 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |