← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 57% | 60% | 1.72 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.57 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 15% | 16% | 6.34 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Marcel Heller · Darmstadt |
| 36' | 🟨 | Peter Niemeyer · Darmstadt |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alexander Milošević · Darmstadt |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Makoto Hasebe · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 78' | 🟨 | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mijat Gaćinović · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 83' | ⚽ | Ante Rebić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aymen Barkok · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 341.00 | 1527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1578.19 | 1406.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.74 | -26.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| league points | 32.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 33.40 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -2.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.33 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -2.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |