← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 46% | 43% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.52 | value: +10% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 26% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Theodor Gebre Selassie · SV Werder Bremen |
| 28' | ⚽ | Jonathan Schmid · FC Augsburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 54' | 🟨 | Ulisses Garcia · SV Werder Bremen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Max Kruse · SV Werder Bremen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Miloš Veljković · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl Bobadilla · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Raúl Bobadilla · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 249.00 | 1345.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1654.69 | 1617.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.46 | 12.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.60 |
| league points | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.75 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 26.38 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |