← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 44% | 48% | 2.22 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
| Ingolstadt win | 24% | 25% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Genki Haraguchi · Hertha |
| 39' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 47' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Ingolstadt |
| 89' | 🟨 | Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 734.00 | 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1570.46 | 1468.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.49 | 27.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 56.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -2.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -1.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |