← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 61% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.37 | value: +12% |
| RB Leipzig win | 16% | 20% | 6.05 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Bernardo · RB Leipzig |
| 35' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
| 72' | 🟨 | Dayot Upamecano · RB Leipzig |
| 81' | 🟨 | Marvin Compper · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 2 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 584.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1873.40 | 1755.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.62 | 15.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 31.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.15 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.59 | 24.62 |
| state index | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |