← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 80% | 84% | 1.23 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.07 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 6% | 5% | 15.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 13' | ⚽ | Naldo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Javi Martínez · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 218.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1910.70 | 1596.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.53 | -37.21 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 45.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.79 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 24.79 | 22.81 |
| state index | 1.88 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.86 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |