← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 56% | 47% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +10% |
| FC Augsburg win | 18% | 24% | 5.39 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 9' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 25' | ⚽ | Halil Altintop · FC Augsburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Vieirinha · Wolfsburg |
| 69' | ⚽ | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ja-Cheol Koo · FC Augsburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 119.00 | 241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1689.12 | 1641.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.63 | -7.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.80 |
| league points | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.67 | 27.25 |
| state index | 0.43 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |