← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 79% | 80% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.10 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 7% | 10% | 13.90 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1337.00 | 211.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1494.72 | 1908.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.63 | 17.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| league points | 16.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 74.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 2.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.79 |
| state index | -0.04 | 1.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 1.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |