← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 42% | 44% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.23 | value: +3% |
| Hamburger SV win | 28% | 24% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 22' | ⚽ | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
| 47' | ⚽ (pen) | Almog Cohen · Ingolstadt |
| 63' | ⚽ | Gotoku Sakai · Hamburger SV |
| 77' | 🟨 | Gotoku Sakai · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 77.00 | 149.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1455.59 | 1465.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.87 | 26.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.97 | -2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | -1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |