← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 45% | 46% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.33 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 25% | 28% | 3.85 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 30' | 🟨 | Alexander Milošević · Darmstadt |
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Aytaç Sulu · 1. FC Köln |
| 36' | ⚽ | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 41' | 🟨 | Christian Clemens · 1. FC Köln |
| 42' | ⚽ | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 55' | 🟨 | Terrence Boyd · Darmstadt |
| 65' | 🟨 | Artjoms Rudnevs · 1. FC Köln |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Sidney Sam · Darmstadt |
| 72' | ⚽ | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 85' | ⚽ | Miloš Jojić · 1. FC Köln |
| 89' | ⚽ | Artjoms Rudnevs · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 1519.00 | 1337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1420.67 | 1579.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.35 | -12.28 |
| eye test v1 | -1.21 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| league points | 9.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.53 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.36 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.98 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |