← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 48% | 52% | 2.05 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.52 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 24% | 22% | 4.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | 🟨 | Tony Jantschke · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peter Niemeyer · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| coach days | 1512.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1417.89 | 1577.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.64 | -26.37 |
| eye test v1 | -1.15 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| league points | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.15 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.92 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |