← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Fri, Jan 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 79% | 76% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 6.98 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 7% | 10% | 14.13 | value: +38% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1877.00 | 203.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1512.26 | 1905.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.45 | 18.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 70.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 2.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.79 |
| state index | 0.09 | 1.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |