← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 49% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 23% | 27% | 4.25 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Alfredo Morales · Ingolstadt |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
| 41' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Roger · Ingolstadt |
| 53' | ⚽ | Markus Suttner · Ingolstadt |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Ingolstadt |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marvin Matip · Ingolstadt |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Onur Bulut · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 39.00 | 1847.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1580.86 | 1654.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.31 | -14.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.82 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 24.93 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.63 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |