← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 57% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.62 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 16% | 21% | 6.03 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marvin Plattenhardt · Hertha |
| 65' | 🟨 | Artem Fedetsky · Darmstadt |
| 66' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 71' | 🟨 | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Peter Niemeyer · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 689.00 | 1481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1584.66 | 1424.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.45 | -44.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.54 |
| league points | 27.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 64.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 37.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.15 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -2.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |