← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Tue, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gunter Perl, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 39% | 52% | 2.53 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 30% | 22% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 294.00 | 672.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1688.15 | 1695.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.60 | -5.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 67.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.56 |
| league points | 26.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |