← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Tue, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71% | 66% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 5.16 | value: +27% |
| FC Augsburg win | 10% | 9% | 9.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 47' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · Borussia Dortmund |
| 52' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Stafylidis · FC Augsburg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Shinji Kagawa · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Signal Iduna Park |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 538.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1878.92 | 1649.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.42 | 4.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 70.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.80 |
| league points | 26.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 27.36 |
| state index | 1.10 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |