← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 85% | 82% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 8.82 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 4% | 8% | 23.32 | value: +84% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Jan Rosenthal · Darmstadt |
| 71' | ⚽ | Douglas Costa · FC Bayern München |
| 75' | 🟨 | Xabi Alonso · FC Bayern München |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mats Hummels · FC Bayern München |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 1478.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1426.18 | 1899.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -46.83 | -8.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | 1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 2.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.04 | 2.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.79 |
| state index | -1.16 | 1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.75 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |