← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 42% | 29% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.29 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 29% | 43% | 3.43 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Wolfsburg |
| 23' | 🟨 | Ante Rebić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Bruma · Wolfsburg |
| 34' | 🟨 | Szabolcs Huszti · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 38' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 61' | 🟨 | Omar Mascarell · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Abraham · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 77.00 | 291.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1660.87 | 1697.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.49 | 32.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 27.95 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |