← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 36% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 36% | 37% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Anthony Modeste · 1. FC Köln |
| 28' | ⚽ | Artjoms Rudnevs · 1. FC Köln |
| 40' | ⚽ | Serge Gnabry · SV Werder Bremen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Serhou Guirassy · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Arón Johannssón · SV Werder Bremen |
| 89' | 🟨 | Marco Höger · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1295.00 | 1295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1494.74 | 1578.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.38 | -13.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.61 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |