← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 40% | 44% | 2.44 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.26 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 30% | 25% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Martin Hinteregger · FC Augsburg |
| 44' | 🟥 | Lewis Holtby · Hamburger SV |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jonathan Schmid · FC Augsburg |
| 57' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 62' | 🟨 | Johan Djourou · Hamburger SV |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 66' | 🟥 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Filip Kostić · Hamburger SV |
| 74' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Stafylidis · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 100.00 | 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1456.54 | 1524.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.19 | 14.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.95 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.82 |
| league points | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.58 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |