← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 54% | 58% | 1.83 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.69 | fair |
| Darmstadt win | 20% | 21% | 4.96 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Julian Schuster · SC Freiburg |
| 23' | 🟨 | Mario Vrančić · Darmstadt |
| 38' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Sven Schipplock · Darmstadt |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Darmstadt |
| 85' | 🟨 | Michael Esser · Darmstadt |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days | 1836.00 | 1470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1489.77 | 1432.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.75 | -53.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.60 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -2.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.57 | -1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |