← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 36% | 40% | 2.75 | value: +10% |
| Darmstadt win | 34% | 29% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · Hamburger SV |
| 39' | 🟨 | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 43' | 🟨 | Johan Djourou · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | 🟨 | Nicolai Müller · Hamburger SV |
| 83' | 🟨 | Matthias Ostrzolek · Hamburger SV |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jan Rosenthal · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dennis Diekmeier · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matthias Ostrzolek · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 24 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 1464.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1451.02 | 1438.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.30 | -28.98 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 1.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.83 | -1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.74 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.01 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |