← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 35% | 27% | 2.83 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 33% | 36% | 2.99 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 33% | 37% | 3.01 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Christoph Janker · FC Augsburg |
| 11' | ⚽ | Branimir Hrgota · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jesús Vallejo · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 33' | 🟨 | Philipp Max · FC Augsburg |
| 34' | ⚽ | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 37' | 🟨 | Makoto Hasebe · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 80' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 186.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1525.29 | 1572.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.62 | 56.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.15 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |