← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 71% | 69% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.08 | value: +8% |
| Darmstadt win | 9% | 10% | 10.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marcel Heller · Darmstadt |
| 26' | ⚽ | Sead Kolašinac · FC Schalke 04 |
| 39' | 🟨 | Artem Fedetsky · Darmstadt |
| 50' | 🟨 | Sandro Sirigu · Darmstadt |
| 60' | ⚽ | Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alessandro Schöpf · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 179.00 | 1457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1655.86 | 1456.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.47 | -18.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.91 | 0.61 |
| league points | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 60.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -2.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.87 | — |
| state index | 1.24 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -1.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |