← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.56 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 22% | 22% | 4.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Aaron Seydel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 36' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 58' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 62' | 🟥 | Jean-Philippe Gbamin · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 67' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 74' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 74' | 🟥 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 87' | 🟨 | Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 23 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days | 665.00 | 649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1716.03 | 1701.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.77 | -9.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| league points | 21.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 25.08 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |