← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 53% | 52% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 19% | 20% | 5.06 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Dominique Heintz · 1. FC Köln |
| 29' | 🟨 | Dong-Won Ji · FC Augsburg |
| 36' | 🟨 | Christoph Janker · FC Augsburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| coach days | 1274.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1595.53 | 1521.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 21.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |