← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 58% | 47% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 34% | 4.28 | value: +47% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 19% | 19% | 5.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 270.00 | 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 4.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1684.30 | 1890.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.70 | 1.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 2.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| league points | 21.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 26.68 |
| state index | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |