← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 38% | 32% | 2.58 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 34% | 39% | 2.88 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 23 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 1268.00 | 264.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1606.08 | 1674.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.74 | 32.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.15 | 27.52 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |